European Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, stated this Monday at the Forum Europa in Brussels that the EU needs to develop an air defense system “with a robust anti-ballistic missile component” to address the new threats that have emerged with the Iran conflict.
During a breakfast organized in the EU capital by New Economy Forum, Kubilius warned that, in the current geostrategic landscape, the European Union “cannot face today’s challenges with yesterday’s solutions,” and therefore, “we need a change”.
Kubilus pointed out first that the US, under the Trump Administration, is turning its attention to the Indo-Pacific, and therefore Europe needs to take responsibility for its conventional defense.
He added that, while there is “no peace on the horizon for the moment” in Ukraine, there is “a real possibility” that the EU could suffer Russian aggression, and in this regard, he argued that the Kremlin is prepared to use between 7 and 9 million drones this year.
Now, after the outbreak of the conflict due to the US and Israeli offensive against Iran, and Tehran's response, Kubilius asserted that Iran could attack the EU not only by driving up energy prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but also with its ballistic missiles “with a range of up to 3.000 kilometers”.
In the event of an increase in ballistic missile attacks from Iran, the first consequence he pointed out would be a shortage of anti-aircraft missile supplies for Ukraine, the Gulf countries, and Europe.
He summarized that ballistic missile defense systems “are now the biggest shortcoming” of the European Union, citing as an example that in 2025, Ukraine faced 2.000 Russian missile attacks, 900 of them ballistic.
He also highlighted that, according to The New York Times, in just the first five days of hostilities with Iran, the United States and its allies deployed more than 800 Patriot anti-ballistic missiles.
INDEPENDENT PRODUCTION
For all these reasons, he considered independent missile production in Europe essential, although he warned that “to develop a European air defense system with a robust anti-ballistic component, we must first learn to overcome the fragmentation” of the industry.
He expressed similar sentiments regarding drone technology, again using the Ukrainian example, as drones are one of Kyiv's priorities. “If the Russians use up to 10 million drones, the Ukrainians need the same number, and they can achieve this, more or less, in conjunction with the Europeans”, he asserted.
Kubilyus emphasized the so-called European defense projects of common interest, and underscored the importance of those aimed at achieving a common air defense shield.
The problem intensifies, he said, when analyzing the types of responses to drone threats, noting that Europe must acknowledge its lack of capabilities to combat them.
Specifically, he explained that, “if an FPV drone costs perhaps 30.000 or 50.000 euros and a missile costs between 1 and 2 million euros, the latter is not the most cost-effective means” to combat drones.
Therefore, he stated that the Gulf countries have asked the Ukrainians to help them combat Shahed drones, without always having to use Patriot missiles.
Finally, he stated that developing an air defense is “definitely an emergency” for the EU, and stressed that it would be a mistake “if we didn’t start serious projects on European soil to develop our own missiles”, while trusting that the US would resolve the supply issue. “We need to develop our own capabilities”, he added.
